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Sunday, July 21, 2019

Planting LOTS of trees may help capture carbon from atmosphere

Many have suggested planting lots of trees to help alleviate the effects of too much carbon in the atmosphere, and computer simulations and recent studies support that concept.

While this is likely to happen to some degree, such as our Malawi friend Andrews Nchessie's effort with his students to plant several million trees in their African homeland to help maintain water supplies in lakes that have dried up, this is something I have not heard anyone seriously discuss yet: are there unintended consequences we should be considering before doing this on a massive scale?

This is an important question to ask before starting ANY major project in any field. Unintended consequences. I'm not sure what they would be for a tree project such as what people are talking about, with billions of new trees that could be planted, but I suspect there are some things to worry about longer term. For example, literally off the top of my head, suppose hundreds of millions of new trees have been growing and capturing carbon for the next few decades. What if the growth and reproduction rates of the trees declines over time, for whatever reasons. If all those trees eventually die, and there are smaller numbers of younger trees to 'replace' the dead trees, all that carbon would be reintroduced to the atmosphere as the dead trees decay. Another possibility is more forests, the potential for more forest fires and the pollution and carbon the fires would release. Depending on the types of trees being planted, what are the effects on animal life on those and surrounding regions of the planet? Species that have been living in 'tree free' areas, could those adapt to trees being added to the ecosystem, or would they be selected for diminishment and possible extinction as new species take over the region? How would water tables be affected in those regions where suddenly there are new, dense forests, and would it be sustainable? How would these new regions affect local economies?

And I suspect you can think of even more questions to at least ask, before the world goes off on a new tree planting fad, without thinking through longer term consequences. Always remember one of the important scenes from 'Jurassic Park' - "The scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn't stop to think if they should." Remember this as your generation takes off with virtual and augmented reality, robotics, artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, expansion of the Internet and cybersecurity, computer chips embedded into human brains, nano-machines in human bodies, next generation weaponry and space/satellite technologies, truly unbreakable computer encryption with quantum computers, humans transplanting civilization to other worlds (the moon and Mars), and numerous other STEM fields and projects.